Hello again, and welcome to our Monthly Market Compass for October 2026. These chart-heavy market summaries go out at the beginning of each month.
These notes are not investment advice and are for informational purposes only. Always do your own research. Sources can be found below each graphic.
As usual, we divide these monthly notes into several sections: an introduction and inflation section, an economy section, a liquidity section, a Fed-focused section, a geopolitics and commodities section, a crypto section, and an equities section. A market conclusion follows these sections. Enjoy!
Welcome back for a new month!
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Welcome to October!
For anyone looking for a scary costume for Halloween, here’s an idea for you:
wow, Spirit Halloween just dropped a terrifying new costume
7:49 PM · Sep 15, 2026 · 214K Views
21 Replies · 196 Reposts · 2.44K Likes
We’ve had a number of interesting events this past month.
On the AI side, we saw OpenAI claim credit for solving a Millennium Prize Problem.
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics.
The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra.
The problem …
5:20 PM · Sep 8, 2026 · 74.8M Views
5.73K Replies · 20.2K Reposts · 121K Likes
We also saw tension between the monetary and fiscal sides of the US market, with the Fed raising rates and the US Treasury attempting to put pressure on the long end of the curve by buying long-term Treasuries.
With the Fed hiking rates and Kevin Warsh being slightly taller than Jerome Powell, this meme is once again relevant:
Lance Lambert @NewsLambert
The fact this meme is undefeated is wild
Jerome Powell is 6'0"
Kevin Warsh is 6'1"
7:39 PM · Sep 16, 2026 · 795K Views
63 Replies · 498 Reposts · 10.4K Likes
As we’ve seen over the entire summer, global bond yields are trending higher:
Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks
What's amazing about the global bond sell-off is how many people are saying rising yields are about strong growth. Seriously!? You think rising yields in Japan, France, Italy or UK are about growth? We're in a global debt shock. Not a global growth shock.
3:13 PM · Sep 10, 2026 · 445K Views
142 Replies · 548 Reposts · 2.24K Likes
Everywhere except for China:
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
The yield crisis has gone global. Except for China.
Yields are now up to 2007 levels in the US, 1998 levels in the UK, 2008 levels in Germany and France, and 1996 levels in Japan.
In China? Government borrowing costs are near their lowest on record.
This stark contrast is one…
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
The UK's bond market is collapsing.
Today, the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK hit 5.95%, its highest level since March 1998.
Yields in the UK are now 15 TIMES above 2020 levels, with the highest borrowing costs among G7 countries.
What is happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
2:50 PM · Sep 15, 2026 · 620K Views
182 Replies · 770 Reposts · 4.48K Likes
Money printing has not stopped:
U.S. China. Europe. Japan. The money supply keeps getting BIGGER.
U.S. M2 alone grew by $1.25 TRILLION over the past year.
You spend years building your savings while the financial system keeps creating more money.
If those savings earn less than inflation, you’re losing …
8:27 PM · Sep 22, 2026 · 191K Views
51 Replies · 127 Reposts · 929 Likes
On the US side, rising rates and our debt are combining to drive ever-higher interest expense payments:
US Interest Expense will surpass Social Security as the biggest government outlay by the end of 2028.
6:40 PM · Sep 11, 2026 · 136K Views
64 Replies · 227 Reposts · 909 Likes
Japan is often looked at as being further down the road than Europe or the U.S. in terms of where our markets and financial setup are headed. Here’s what Japan’s interest rate expense looks like now, and projected forward:
Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
Japan is fucked... it can't seriously fight inflation.
Its interest expenses have more than doubled over the last 4 years...
Fighting inflation through interest rate hikes will blow up interest expenses even further.
The current average yield on Japan's debt is ~1%... …
6:04 PM · Sep 17, 2026 · 49.9K Views
67 Replies · 220 Reposts · 959 Likes
Inflation is measured in year-over-year terms. Looking back seven years paints a more dramatic picture:
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
Price Increases over last 7 years...
New Cars: +23%
Used Cars: +28%
Groceries: +33%
Shelter: +35%
Family Health Insurance: +38%
Restaurants: +39%
Transportation: +41%
Electricity: +43%
Auto Insurance: +49%
Gasoline: +51%
Home Prices: +60%
Gas Utilities: +60%
Fuel Oil: +67%
Ground …
5:41 PM · Sep 11, 2026 · 182K Views
154 Replies · 479 Reposts · 1.48K Likes
Here’s some more on the commodities side.
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
Houston, we have a problem.
Food and energy prices are exploding higher.
And the longer the Iran War drags on, the more these price increases will ripple through the economy and the harder inflation will be to contain.
Video:
11:59 PM · Sep 17, 2026 · 69.4K Views
63 Replies · 225 Reposts · 670 Likes
How is the deflation story working out so far? Not so well:
(The red items below are deflating costs)
Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein
Someone ask Dave Rosenberg when the deflation's gonna hit
6:02 PM · Sep 10, 2026 · 29.7K Views
14 Replies · 12 Reposts · 96 Likes
Foreign currency holdings are de-dollarizing:
U.S. Dollar share of global foreign currency reserves have fallen to its lowest level this century 🤯📉👀💸
3:01 AM · Sep 17, 2026 · 415K Views
116 Replies · 842 Reposts · 3.28K Likes
Gold holdings continue to climb and now exceed holdings of US Treasuries:
Gold reserves hits $5 trillion, overtaking U.S. Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset
6:40 PM · Sep 17, 2026 · 202K Views
42 Replies · 407 Reposts · 1.45K Likes
China is a significant part of that gold buying story:
Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto
🚨 HERE’S THE PART NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT
Everyone is focused on prices.
They’re missing the real question:
WHO IS BUYING EVERYTHING THE WEST IS BEING FORCED TO SELL?
Unrealized capital gains taxes are a government control tool.
They are designed to manipulate markets.
If …
3:36 PM · Feb 14, 2026 · 235K Views
27 Replies · 29 Reposts · 124 Likes
Meanwhile, China has cut its Treasury holdings back to 2001 levels.
2001!
China’s official share of U.S. Treasuries is back to 2001 levels.
12:16 PM · Sep 7, 2026 · 988K Views
164 Replies · 743 Reposts · 5.42K Likes
How is China doing that? With a current account surplus like you read about in history books:
The missing flow problem
East Asia now runs a massive surplus ...
But almost none of it appears to flow into the US bond market
And the US needs an inflow to fund its deficit
1/
4:19 PM · Sep 27, 2026 · 171K Views
23 Replies · 105 Reposts · 584 Likes
We’ve shown this before and will show it again:
Inverted US 10-year real rates continue to move in opposite directions from gold prices:
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
This is still one of the most important macro divergences in markets today.
Ever since the US seized Russian assets, we have seen this historical relationship come apart.
Gold is now the main collateral for central banks.
Meanwhile, the current trajectory of real yields is …
4:38 AM · Sep 16, 2026 · 83.8K Views
52 Replies · 235 Reposts · 1.22K Likes
The 10-year rolling return on Treasuries is at its lowest point in the postwar world:
This is wild.
The 10 year rolling returns on Treasuries is now -2%, the worst in 100 YEARS.
h/t:
1:15 PM · Sep 4, 2026 · 898K Views
108 Replies · 476 Reposts · 1.91K Likes
Meanwhile, 30-year US Treasuries are in a meltdown:
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
US Treasuries are experiencing one of the worst bear markets in history:
The 30Y US Treasury price return index has dropped -60% since 2020, to ~107, matching its lowest level in 2000.
In other words, in just 6 years, the index has erased nearly 20 years of gains.
By …
6:00 PM · Sep 28, 2026 · 635K Views
185 Replies · 631 Reposts · 3.74K Likes
Meanwhile, bond market apologists are starting their charts in 1870 to normalize recent developments:
The 10-year Treasury yield is breaking above its 150-year average of 4.5%.
12:10 PM · Sep 28, 2026 · 249K Views
30 Replies · 131 Reposts · 703 Likes
