Hello again, and welcome to our Monthly Market Compass for November 2026. These chart-heavy market summaries go out at the beginning of each month.
These notes are not investment advice and are for informational purposes only. Always do your own research. Sources can be found below each graphic.
As usual, we divide these monthly notes into several sections: an introduction and inflation section, an economy section, a liquidity section, a Fed-focused section, a geopolitics and commodities section, a crypto section, and an equities section. A market conclusion follows these sections. Enjoy!
Welcome back for a new month!
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Welcome to November! Earlier this week voters handed Democrats both the House and the Senate.
Perhaps some deadlock will arrest the US fiscal spending and debt. Debt passing 40T this month for the first time:
US debt broke through $40T:
Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav
New record US national debt. On pace for $50 trillion in 2030.
42% of all income taxes collected by the govt are going to paying interest on the national debt.
Can’t stop this train. 🔥
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. @RealEJAntoni
$40,301,481,000,000
1:44 PM · Oct 14, 2026 · 39K Views
114 Replies · 129 Reposts · 763 Likes
Net interest is 14.2% of FY2026 outlays so far, above defense at 13.0%:
Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital
The final 2026 US budget is out…
One of the great political moves by the left in recent years has been convincing a large portion of America that we don’t already spend the vast majority of our money on healthcare and entitlement programs.
3:32 PM · Oct 23, 2026 · 305K Views
205 Replies · 753 Reposts · 4.25K Likes
And not on a great trend:
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Interest expense on US public debt rose +$144 billion YoY in FY2026, or +12%, to a record $1.36 trillion.
This marks the 6th consecutive annual increase, for a total of +$839 billion, or +161%.
For perspective, total receipts rose just +3.2% YoY, to $5.40 trillion. …
2:31 PM · Oct 17, 2026 · 179K Views
166 Replies · 215 Reposts · 1.34K Likes
And if rates stay where they are, then when the Treasury issues new debt to refinance the bonds they already have out, they will be doing so in a way that increases that interest rate expense:
Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
More Treasury INTERVENTION could be coming if yields resume their surge:
The 2-year Treasury yield stands at 4.80%, versus a 6-year average of 2.88%, while the 5-year yield is at 4.92%, compared with a 2.91% average.
Meanwhile, the 10-year yield eased to 5.08%, versus a 6-year …
5:02 PM · Oct 18, 2026 · 5.6K Views
14 Replies · 13 Reposts · 41 Likes
Global Bond rates were moving higher at the beginning of October:
Casey Donaldson @caseyjdonaldson
THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET CRISIS IS HERE.
US 30Y is the highest since 2002
Japan 30Y is the highest since 1996
France 30Y is the highest since 2002
UK 30Y is the highest since 1996
Germany 30Y is the highest since 2011
South Korea 30Y is the highest ever
Australia 30Y is the …
3:46 PM · Oct 1, 2026 · 18.7K Views
9 Replies · 32 Reposts · 115 Likes
Seen differently:
Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks
Long-term yields are gapping higher today for France, Italy and the UK. Things like 10y10y and 10y20y forward are up over 10 bps in these places. This sell-off has been building for many years going back to COVID and the huge fiscal expansion at the time.
12:54 PM · Oct 7, 2026 · 29.3K Views
12 Replies · 33 Reposts · 150 Likes
All of that is because the rest of the western world is in the same place as the US. Growing debt, and the market starting to price in inflation risks as governments are anticipated to print their way out of the moment they find themselves in.
To that end, the chart showing US inflation today vs. the 1970s will stay in the public view, until it doesn’t:
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
Last week’s inflation data reinforce the same message.
We are likely in for a decade of sticky inflation.
Yet central banks will inevitably have to cut rates to keep governments’ borrowing costs manageable.
That combination could have profound implications for hard assets. …
9:59 PM · Oct 18, 2026 · 43.1K Views
39 Replies · 124 Reposts · 793 Likes
More recently, during October, yields have been falling:
Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks
Global bond yields are falling everywhere, except for France. The test is whether France can recouple with global yields at a time like this - when stress lessens - or whether it's unable to. It doesn't look like it's shedding its image as enfant terrible.
12:58 PM · Nov 2, 2026 · 17.5K Views
11 Replies · 17 Reposts · 84 Likes
The USD is strengthening as this happens:
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Dollar Index $DXY hits highest level in 1.5 years 📈 📈
6:46 PM · Oct 12, 2026 · 53.2K Views
42 Replies · 94 Reposts · 672 Likes
With the Dollar still on its 2011 trendline:
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
The muted response of the dollar was arguably the most important thing today.
So much for the idea that every selloff sends investors rushing into the US dollar because liquidity becomes king.
Treasuries aside, the dollar would normally have caught a strong bid during a selloff …
4:47 AM · Oct 23, 2026 · 41.2K Views
49 Replies · 52 Reposts · 583 Likes
Meanwhile, central bank holdings of gold continue to move higher:
For everyone wondering what is happening with gold, a useful chart to be familiar with is this one:
David Lee @DavidLe76335983
It is time like this past weeks that we should understand any bull run will have retracement to shake out traders. If you are in and out constantly timing the market, Gold is a difficult asset to make money. You have to have conviction of your investment thesis to ride out …
4:44 PM · Oct 31, 2026 · 45.2K Views
16 Replies · 57 Reposts · 276 Likes
US 10-year term premium broke out to a 16-year high, now above 1%:
The Great Martis @great_martis
The era of cheap long-term debt is over. ⚠️
The 10-year term premium has broken out to a 16-year high and is now above 1%.
Bond investors are no longer willing to lend the government money for a decade without being paid extra for the risk of rising rates, bigger deficits, and …
2:21 AM · Oct 18, 2026 · 32.6K Views
27 Replies · 47 Reposts · 480 Likes
France has had some challenges this past month. Relatedly, the France-Germany 10Y spread has blown out:
jeroen blokland @jsblokland
The French bond spread, now at 1.69 percentage points, is rapidly approaching the peak reached at the height of the Eurozone debt crisis.
So, are we in a crisis? Will France default?
The answer to the second question is no, assuming the ECB prints money and cuts interest rates …
8:19 AM · Oct 22, 2026 · 14.5K Views
12 Replies · 13 Reposts · 60 Likes
The question remains if long term UST rates ever get back in line with the trend of the last 40 years:
Interestingly, Federal revenue since 1791 paints a different story than the one we are all used to:
Brian Cates - Political Columnist & Pundit @drawandstrike
Guess why someone never shows you this?
9:33 PM · Oct 20, 2026 · 424K Views
110 Replies · 1.03K Reposts · 5.49K Likes
We’ve seen a number of exceptional events in addition to the political side of things.
