Monthly Market Compass: June 2026
Warsh in. Berkshire cash up. Dollar down? How close are we to an equity selloff if AI keeps delivering earnings?
Hello again, and welcome to our Monthly Market Compass for June 2026. These chart-heavy market summaries go out at the beginning of each month.
These notes are not investment advice and are for informational purposes only. Always do your own research. Sources can be found below each graphic.
As usual, we divide these monthly notes into several sections: an introduction and inflation section, an economy section, a liquidity section, a Fed-focused section, a geopolitics and commodities section, a crypto section, which is followed by an equities section. A market conclusion follows these sections. Enjoy!
Introduction and Inflation:
Welcome back for a new month!
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We start this month’s Market Compass noting that Kevin Warsh has now completed his first month as the new Fed Chair.
As we will see later, the UST 2y is pricing in a slightly higher Fed Funds rate (showing a higher likelihood of Fed Funds rate hikes than cuts). This despite the received wisdom that the Fed will eventually be forced into rate cuts, with President Trump likely to call for cuts as well.
We have a number of tension points in markets currently. But for me, the organizing idea this month is a tension: Warsh - with years under Stan Druckenmiller - understands the problem facing the US, yet the dollar might weaken anyway.
So to start this month, we need to revisit that discussion.
US money supply continues to grow:
Leaving many to suspect that we will see weakness in the USD:
We’ve shown this chart before and it is worth showing again. When a currency is in a large devaluation phase, the prices of scarce resources will fluctuate wildly:
The US is not the only currency facing potential devaluation:
The war with Iran has focused many economies on the local price of oil, with Germany a clear example:
China’s PBOC has returned to buying Gold after a brief selling period in March:
All of which points to concerns around a deteriorating US dollar.
In an environment with a weakening US Dollar, we would expect to see higher inflation, and that is what the Truflation CPI is showing us:
Source: https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate
ISM services prices point towards higher inflation as well:
All of which is causing many to ask if we are seeing a repeat of the inflation of the 1970s.
With some looking at one more wave of inflation in the next ten years:
And some looking at two more waves over the coming decade:
