Hello again, and welcome to our Monthly Market Compass for April 2026. These chart-heavy market summaries go out at the beginning of each month.
These notes are not investment advice and are for informational purposes only. Always do your own research. Sources can be found below each graphic.
As usual, we divide these monthly notes into several sections: an introduction and inflation section, an economy section, a liquidity section, a Fed-focused section, a geopolitics and commodities section, a crypto section, which is followed by an equities section. A market conclusion follows these sections. Enjoy!
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The Strait or Hormuz, and the ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran remains the key global macro topic impacting markets in the immediate term.
"He who can destroy a thing has the real control of it"
- Paul Atreides in Dune
2:57 AM · Mar 21, 2026 · 688K Views
67 Replies · 1.46K Reposts · 18.3K Likes
As many have noted, more than 20% of global energy flows through the Strait, the disruption of which is impacting all global markets in various ways.
The key question is around how the war with Iran will impact oil markets and overall inflation levels long term.
At the moment, oil is seeing its largest run up in annual prices since at least the mid 1980s:
Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois
Most aggressive oil price surge in history
This is not normal 🚨
10:53 AM · Mar 20, 2026 · 13.8K Views
19 Replies · 29 Reposts · 173 Likes
Meanwhile gold continues to crowd out US Treasuries in terms of central bank reserves:
Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle
Nice one by , although I think that full credit should go to
9:13 AM · Mar 31, 2026 · 34K Views
5 Replies · 26 Reposts · 116 Likes
Central Bank holdings of US Treasuries continue to fall:
Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph
🚨 NOW: The US dollar's share of global foreign currency reserves has fallen to its lowest level this century, dropping to nearly 40%, per Bloomberg Intelligence.
7:00 AM · Mar 31, 2026 · 88.4K Views
144 Replies · 485 Reposts · 1.36K Likes
Similarly, foreign central bank holdings of US Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve are in decline:
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm
From the :
" Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US government bonds to prop up their economies and currencies in the wake of the Iran war.
The value of
1:37 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 88.8K Views
55 Replies · 235 Reposts · 594 Likes
The combination of this factors (Iran, Oil, rotation from USTs to Gold) has seen borrowing costs for the western world rise over the last month:
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven https://t.co/lBYCGveYRA
4:59 AM · Apr 1, 2026 · 16.4K Views
3 Replies · 92 Reposts · 398 Likes
Despite rising, US Treasury 10yr rates have not kept pace with rising oil costs:
10y UST yield (blue, RS1)
USDJPY*oil (red, LS)
USDCNY*oil (green, RS2)
Choices:
1. Let 10y UST yields spike, hitting stocks, housing, & economy.
2. Print USD into an oil spike to cap 10y yields, hitting USD.
3. Walk away, granting Iran a strategic victory.
Let's watch.
1:59 PM · Mar 28, 2026 · 162K Views
165 Replies · 236 Reposts · 1.47K Likes
We continue to look at the DXY index as the US Dollar potentially begins a decline against other currencies:
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed.
We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw.
The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength are likely to be short-lived, in my
7:48 PM · Mar 10, 2026 · 30.8K Views
21 Replies · 110 Reposts · 525 Likes
Energy costs have spiked along with oil prices as much of the world’s energy consumers have been challenged by the war’s impacts on energy markets.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
An update on a critical chart:
Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow.
Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by historical standards.
9:55 PM · Mar 17, 2026 · 43.3K Views
44 Replies · 133 Reposts · 657 Likes
CPI may soon follow energy prices along with other commodities prices, but at the moment, CPI has yet to catch up to where they might soon be:
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation.
Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :)
Two words come to mind:
Hard Assets.
3:56 PM · Mar 30, 2026 · 36.4K Views
32 Replies · 134 Reposts · 784 Likes
Indeed, inflation as measured by Truflation surged in March, falling on April 1st.
The US inflation index went down quite significantly today from 1.77% to 1.26%.
Truflation CPI often shows larger monthly shifts on the 1st of each month because multiple data providers update their data.
This time, the shift is downwards and unusually strong, highlighting
10:05 AM · Apr 1, 2026 · 75.4K Views
17 Replies · 142 Reposts · 516 Likes
Nevertheless, many are expecting inflation numbers to rise in comings months as energy costs work their way through the system:
Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat
ISM Manufacturing prices paid rose to 78.3 in March, above ests of 74.0 and the highest since mid-2022. We get ISM Services next week, but it suggests meaningful upside pressure in CPI if it persists.
2:20 PM · Apr 1, 2026 · 3.71K Views
3 Replies · 12 Reposts · 58 Likes
The remaining question around Inflation is how closely we will track to the 1970s, with potentially rising inflation, leaving the Fed with no good options:
They're calling it the most prescient chart crime in history...
You may not like it, but this is unbelievable forecasting performance https://t.co/7pR8xJ0Bmj
2:15 PM · Mar 21, 2026 · 236K Views
20 Replies · 98 Reposts · 1.48K Likes
And with that, let’s dive in!
